Former AQ-Affiliated Group in NW Syria Attempts to Rebrand Amidst Ankara-Damascus Rapprochement
On February 3, several rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as Jabhat Al-Nusra and designated as a terrorist organization, announced the formation of the “Al-Shahba Gathering.” However, on the same day, rival rebel groups, such as the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement declined to join the new formation. Factions that initially joined later withdrew their support.
These rebel groups warned other opposition factions to be cautious of any projects associated with Al-Qaeda and not to become tools in the hands of HTS commander-in-chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Some of the rebel groups backed out of the formation due to fears that Ankara would cut off funding.
According to local resources, some rebel groups that initially agreed to join the new formation rolled back on their decision, fearing that Ankara would shut down funding.
HTS found itself in a critical position mainly after its skirmishes with the Turkish army in October 2022 when a number of its factions entered the areas under the control of the Turkish-backed rebel groups in Afrin and Azaz areas in northern Aleppo, siding with Al Hamza and Sultan Sulaiman Shah rebels groups in their bid to control the entire area from northwestern Idlib to northern Aleppo against a possible formation of a new umbrella faction that could jeopardize HTS’ authority in northwest Syria.
The Turkish army ordered the HTS to withdraw its fighters from the area, but when HTS stalled and pulled a decoy withdrawal the Turkish army carried out an inspection campaign to search for HTS fighters hiding within rebel groups in the Olive Branch groups area in northern Syria.
As ties between Turkey and Syria thawed, with the two countries initiating negotiations in December 2022, Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups expressed fears.
In December 2022, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and the head of its National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), Hakan Fidan, met with Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmud Abbas and intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk in Moscow. The meeting was mediated by Russia and attended by the Russian Federation Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and the Heads of the Russian Federation and Syrian Intelligence.
“The Syrian crisis, the refugee problem and joint efforts to combat all terrorist organizations in Syria were discussed,” Turkey’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.
These talks mark the first since the 12-year conflict erupted in Syria, the involved parties agreed on continuing the cooperation.
Meanwhile, Iran will be joining the circle of negotiations with Turkey, according to a statement by the Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.
The rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus raised fears in the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition. Turkey has been a major backer of rebel groups fighting Assad. After Syrian President Bashar Assad defeated the rebels in all parts of the country and pushed them to northwestern Syria, Turkish support to opposition groups became the main lifeline. Moreover, the last humanitarian corridor to over 4 million IDPs in north and northwest Syria goes through the Turkish borders.
HTS, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate and one of the most powerful rebel groups in Syria, has expressed concern over Turkey’s recent rapprochement with the Syrian government. The group, which has a strong presence in Idlib province, has been at odds with the Syrian government and its allies, including Russia and Iran, ch has supported rival rebel groups in the past.
HTS sees Turkey’s recent moves to improve relations with the Syrian government as a threat to its position in Idlib, and the broader opposition movement. The group has expressed concern that Turkey’s shift in policy could lead to a joint military operation against Idlib by Turkish and Syrian forces, which would put the population and the opposition at risk.
Tahrir al-Sham has also expressed frustration with Turkey’s perceived abandonment of the Syrian opposition and its failure to fulfill previous promises of support and protection.
Some within the group have called for a more confrontational stance towards Turkey, while others have sought to negotiate with the Turkish government to secure its interests in the region.
Regardless of its response, Tahrir al-Sham’s future remains uncertain in the face of these developments. Political and military dynamics will likely limit its outcome in the region.
It is no secret that HTS has ties with Turkey, but it’s complex. , due to its designation as a terrorist group, it is necessary for Turkey to maintain a presence of other factions working under the Syrian National Army (SNA), like the Hamza division and Ahrar al-Sham.
As part of its “control through policy,” Turkey has tried to exert its influence over Tahrir al-Sham by blending it with other rebel groups. Despite these efforts, the group has remained a persistent challenge for Turkey, as evidenced by its skirmishes with the Turkish army in October 2022. Nevertheless, the thawing relationship between Turkey and Syria has raised concerns among the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition. It remains to be seen how this will affect the future of Tahrir al-Sham and its ties with Turkey.
Turkey’s “control-through-centralization” policy in northwestern Syria refers to its efforts to exert control and influence over the region through the consolidation of power and decision-making in the hands of the central government. This has involved the appointment of Turkish-backed officials in key positions, the establishment of security forces and paramilitary groups loyal to Turkey, and the implementation of Turkish laws and regulations.
This policy aims to create a stable and secure environment for the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces and prevent the resurgence of Kurdish-led groups that Turkey views as a security threat. However, it has also been criticized for undermining local autonomy and eroding the legitimacy of the Syrian opposition in the eyes of the population, as well as violating the rights of those living in the region.
A history of rebranding
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as Tahrir al-Sham, is a rebel group in Syria that has undergone several transformations and rebrandings since its inception. The group was originally established as Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012, with the goal of overthrowing the Syrian government and establishing an Islamic state in Syria. It was officially affiliated with Al-Qaeda until 2016 when it disowned its ties to AQ and rebranded as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
In 2017, the group merged with several other opposition factions to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in an effort to present a unified front against the Syrian government and its allies. In 2019, HTS removed the most extremist members, mostly groups comprised of foreign fighters, to reshape its image as a moderate opposition group.
However, HTS’ association with AQ and its extremist ideology has made it a target of both the Syrian government and the international community. The group has faced military offensives from both the Syrian army and its allies, as well as from rival opposition groups, leading to significant territorial losses in recent years.
Despite its rebranding efforts, Tahrir al-Sham continues to be viewed as a terrorist organization by many countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Turkey. Its future remains uncertain, as it struggles to maintain its influence in the face of military pressure and political marginalization.
